您的位置:首页 > 绯闻

养猪板块再度大涨,最强猪周期还有多少空间?

时间:2019-07-16
bbin百家乐网址

612e32fa6e2349658be7182eabd40952

据媒体报道,自6月以来,生猪价格持续上涨,从5月31日的15.5元/公斤到目前的17.3元/公斤,1月份增长了12%。预计9月份的高点将突破25元/公斤。

天丰证券认为,随着供应的进一步收紧,猪的价格将继续上涨。预计2021年上半年将达到这个猪周期的高点。由于上市公司数量的增加,预计上市公司将在未来两年内迎来加速发布阶段的业绩。

投资观点:

(1)预计上市公司将迎来加速发布阶段的业绩

假设生猪的平均价格是17.5元/公斤。如果计算总成本13.5元/公斤和115公斤屠宰的重量,人均利润可以达到460元/头。预计随着供应的进一步收紧,猪的价格将继续上涨。预计2021年上半年将达到本轮猪的最高点,预计高点将达到或超过30元/公斤。由于上市公司数量的增加,预计上市公司将在未来两年内迎来加速发布阶段的业绩。

(2)龙头企业将迎来价格和价格上涨

f6d374939ed6436bad116bced8fc486d

在疫情的影响下,国家生产能力将继续下降,预计将更难恢复。预计当前周期将更高,并且由于容量的恢复,猪的持续时间将保持更高。

但是,上市公司的新产能和恢复生产已经开始。建立了上市公司的防疫优势,具有资金和养猪的优势。未来的产能预计将逆转趋势并保持高增长。在未来2 - 3年内,将是上市公司叠加的养猪业盈利周期的快速扩张期。这是一个长期的利润和损失。

(3)规模养殖场加速集中,股价弹性仍然较大

Under the background of continuous depletion of production capacity and high certainty of pig price, the amount of live pigs has become the core indicator for measuring the elasticity of performance. Large-scale farms rely on capital advantages, technological advantages, and management advantages to control the epidemic to the greatest extent and achieve capacity expansion in a relatively stable farming environment. This African swine fever epidemic will accelerate the concentration of the pig breeding industry and benefit large-scale breeding groups.

7510eab99f1a41689eabf61e6817929e

According to the market capitalization of the head market, according to the market value of June 17, 2019, the market value of 19 years, the market capitalization of Tiankang Bio, Tianbang, Muyuan, Wenshi and Zhengbang are respectively 3,213 yuan. 4710 yuan, 8993 yuan, 5826 yuan, 4603 yuan, compared with the previous round of high points, the estimated potential space is 50% -100%. In addition, this cycle is affected by African pigs. The increase and time span of pig prices will significantly exceed the previous cycle, and the corresponding stock price elasticity will also hit a new high. The average market value of the head is higher than the high point of the previous round.

Relevant subject: Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang, Tangren, Wenshi, Muyuan, and New Hope.

xx
日期归档
  • 友情链接:
  • 澳门百家乐网址 版权所有© www.extremeptc.com 技术支持:澳门百家乐网址| 网站地图